69EG7519: Sustainability and Global Systems

69EG7519: Sustainability and Global Systems
Assignment 2: The Implications of Climate Change and Peak Oil for the Future Growth and Development of Aviation and hence the Global Socio-economy


MESSAGE FROM CALLUM THOMAS


Apologies that I did not provide you all with an assignment briefing when I lectured to you last week. As a result I am happy to delay the submission date for this Assignment by one week.


Over the past 50 years the air transport industry has played a significant role in creating the modern world that we take for granted today, but, with the continuing reliance of the industry upon carbon fuels, climate change, the issue of peak oil and the very high cost of alternative fuels, I genuinely do not know how mobile we will all be in 50 years time. This has serious implications for our children.


Will we continue to go on holiday in the Mediterranean, will we be restricted to destinations we can reach by high speed trains, or will it be Blackpool? (What a thought!) If we get a radical step change in aviation technology then we may continue to be globally mobile, but what if there is no such change?


I have asked Mark Cresswell to post three more papers on WebCT that you may find useful when you prepare your written assignment.


1. Charles Schlumberger (2010), A Review of the Opportunities and Challenges of Alternative Fuels for Aviation, Annals IASL, McGill Vol XXXV


2. The Committee on Climate Change Report on Aviation (2009)


3. Sustainable Aviation – Carbon Dioxide Road Map – This an industry group that has looked at the potential for technological and operational improvements within the industry and implications for CO2 emissions from UK Aviation. It suggests that emissions will continue to grow for about 20 years and then, by 2050, come back to where they were in 2005


NGOs say that aviation in incompatible with a low carbon economy and that the increasing cost of oil will take away demand for air travel in the longer term.

BUT if you were the Minister for Transport, what future would you plan for?


Do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.


HAPPY EASTER !!


Callum Thomas